Instuctor interview

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Atrosa
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by Atrosa »

drseti wrote:
Atrosa wrote: I'm really waiting to see what the FAA decides for both the ESLA rule and the LSA weight, speed, limitations.
If you're waiting for FAA action, expect to be waiting a long time!
Im just trying to read the tea leaves. I dont want to spend a bunch of cash on a plane that due to new FAA rules will loose 50% of its value. I think a portion of the pricing correction has happened already but Im still gathering data. I tend to over analyze everything.
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ShawnM
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by ShawnM »

Atrosa wrote:
drseti wrote:
Atrosa wrote: I'm really waiting to see what the FAA decides for both the ESLA rule and the LSA weight, speed, limitations.
If you're waiting for FAA action, expect to be waiting a long time!
Im just trying to read the tea leaves. I dont want to spend a bunch of cash on a plane that due to new FAA rules will loose 50% of its value. I think a portion of the pricing correction has happened already but Im still gathering data. I tend to over analyze everything.
Nevermind the tea leaves, you sound like you have a crystal ball. :mrgreen:

I tend to overanalyze everything myself but there are just some things out of my control, like aircraft futures and the FAA.

As Paul stated it's anyone's guess and we are talking many, many years before this new rule, that we dont even know what it's gonna look like or if it effects legacy aircraft, goes into effect. 50% of it's value lost? That's certainly reaching. Are you sure that sitting on the fence, waiting on the unknown for what is certainly YEARS in the making is a wise decision? Nevermind the money for a second, life happens and you may be in a completely different point in life, have medical issues, etc by the time this FINALLY rolls around and now that window could be closed. In my opinion waiting for "the unknown" is not a decision that I'd bank on. I'm not saying spend your life savings on a plane but take life by the horns and live in the moment. You only get one ride on this merry-go-round of life. :mrgreen:
TimTaylor
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by TimTaylor »

I agree. I would get a few hours of dual and maybe solo, then start looking for an LSA that meets your defined mission. Once you determine you want to be an airplane owner and have the resources to do so, you might as well start looking.

I think any possible changes in the LSA definition could take years, if ever. In the mean time, while renting works well for some of us, it might not be a good way to visit your vacation home. If the LSA definition does change, there are plenty pilots for whom the current LSA will still work well. I believe there will always be a market for the currently defined LSA.
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Warmi
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by Warmi »

Atrosa wrote:
drseti wrote:
Atrosa wrote: I'm really waiting to see what the FAA decides for both the ESLA rule and the LSA weight, speed, limitations.
If you're waiting for FAA action, expect to be waiting a long time!
Im just trying to read the tea leaves. I dont want to spend a bunch of cash on a plane that due to new FAA rules will loose 50% of its value. I think a portion of the pricing correction has happened already but Im still gathering data. I tend to over analyze everything.
The way I see it - in a market where primary considerations is not the pace of technological progress ( which tends to be very gradual without sudden and disruptive changes ) but government regulations, you are screwed anyway because a single rule change can make or break entire industries and make products obsolete overnight - this is why when regulations become heavy , businesses switch from competing in the market to competing in Washington DC because spending money there gives them bigger returns - we have very little input into all these lobbying efforts of LSA producers and others , so trying to predict that is a crapshoot.

Get a damn plane and enjoy it while you can instead of waiting for the Godot.... :D
Flying Sting S4 ( N184WA ) out of Illinois
Sling 2 Pilot
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by Sling 2 Pilot »

Tim, Warmi and The Dr have given you great advise. I took delivery of an S-LSA last July, just as the announcement was made. Did it change my perspective, NO, not in the least. Am I worried about my planes value when new spec’s are announced, years down the road...Nope! I’m alive and I’m flying the plane of MY choice.
TimTaylor
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by TimTaylor »

Warmi wrote:
Atrosa wrote:
drseti wrote:
If you're waiting for FAA action, expect to be waiting a long time!
Im just trying to read the tea leaves. I dont want to spend a bunch of cash on a plane that due to new FAA rules will loose 50% of its value. I think a portion of the pricing correction has happened already but Im still gathering data. I tend to over analyze everything.
The way I see it - in a market where primary considerations is not the pace of technological progress ( which tends to be very gradual without sudden and disruptive changes ) but government regulations, you are screwed anyway because a single rule change can make or break entire industries and make products obsolete overnight - this is why when regulations become heavy , businesses switch from competing in the market to competing in Washington DC because spending money there gives them bigger returns - we have very little input into all these lobbying efforts of LSA producers and others , so trying to predict that is a crapshoot.

Get a damn plane and enjoy it while you can instead of waiting for the Godot.... :D
Please don't turn this into a Libertarian rant as usual. Either they will change the definition of LSA or not. The OP is debating an aircraft purchase sooner or waiting until later. I think most of us recommend sooner.
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Warmi
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by Warmi »

It is not libertarian or liberal or anything - it is just a fact . Right now if you want to have an LSA plane, you are limited to what regulations defined as an LSA plane that has not much to do with technological limitations etc.
If the regulations change, so will the market for LSA planes , regardless of any technological advances or capabilities.
Flying Sting S4 ( N184WA ) out of Illinois
TimTaylor
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by TimTaylor »

Which came first, the LSA or the LSA definition? I don't know, but think maybe the definition was written around the plane. I think they are now looking to see if they can safely expand the definition to include more existing and future planes. There is nothing sinister here.

If the definition is expanded to include a Cessna 150, for instance, I don't think it will have any impact on the current LSA market or values. People who can afford a $60,000+ used LSA will go that way. People who can afford a $25,000 C150 will get back into flying or stop renting and buy a C150. I think it's not something someone should worry about if contemplating the purchase of an LSA, IMHO.

EDIT: I guess I should add that if the definition of LSA is expanded to include much more capable aircraft or 4 place aircraft, then maybe the value of existing LSA defined aircraft might be reduced somewhat. I hope that becomes an issue we need to contemplate.
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TimTaylor
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by TimTaylor »

TimTaylor wrote:My financial statements are done. It's a 1040 form on TurboTax. I'm just waiting for form 8606 which is available tomorrow to report a couple Roth conversions. Retirement is great.
Taxes done and filed. I had to pay $28. Should have had to pay zero, but I made an error entering tax withholding amount in January 2018. Several years ago, I built a huge spreadsheet that does my taxes every month and tells me how much to withhold. My goal is to hit zero owed or refund, but the closest I have come was a $19 refund last year. It's pretty easy since all my investments are in tax deferred accounts.

EDIT: Already accepted by feds.

EDIT: Accepted by Georgia.
Last edited by TimTaylor on Mon Jan 28, 2019 10:34 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Type47
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by Type47 »

“I think they are now looking to see if they can safely expand the definition...”

I think the problem is that “they” is actually supposed to be “We”.
I know that if I took an interminably long time to give my customers what they obviously want, all the while piling on more and more rules and costs of doing business with me. If I scoffed at them and treated them like I was way smarter than them. And if I refused to listen to people who really wanted to do business with me.
I could expect a continual decline in customers. New customers would be rare. And the customers that remained with me, although feeling trapped because I am the only business in town, would continue to age and the business would continue to stagnate.
If every time I was confronted with problems, I would fix a couple of them, rather than the complete change of business plan needed.
I could do just enough to keep the heat off me.
I wonder why general aviation is dying?
Prolly because of ranting.
Type47
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TimTaylor
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by TimTaylor »

I guess we should just let everyone vote via internet on everything and do that. That should really work well. :roll:
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Type47
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by Type47 »

TimTaylor wrote:I guess we should just let everyone vote via internet on everything and do that. That should really work well. :roll:
Yes. Thank you for clarifying my thoughts.
If not for the current way, your idea would be the only other way it could be done.
Type47
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Don’t do the thing that almost killed you until you at least get the staples taken out of your head first….
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drseti
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by drseti »

Type47 wrote:I could expect a continual decline in customers. New customers would be rare.
One important difference: your customers can always choose another vendor. It's much more difficult for us to choose another government! ;)
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TimTaylor
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by TimTaylor »

I'm going to refrain from getting into a political argument. I do hope they relax the LSA definition a little to at least allow a few more standard certificated aircraft into the LSA definition.
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Warmi
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Re: Instuctor interview

Post by Warmi »

They just need to simplify definition of LSAs using basic criteria rather than limiting it in every way possible.

Something as simple as stall speed alone could potentially cover the entire rule.

It would indirectly limit the gross , the maximum speed and keep the spirit of simple and easy to fly planes while still allowing manufacturers to make different tradeoffs ( fast and light vs heavier and slow etc )
Flying Sting S4 ( N184WA ) out of Illinois
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